MODEL PERFORMANCE

Public proof for benchmark-graded team forecasts and closing-line tracked player props.

How to read this: Team forecasts are graded against benchmark numbers. Prop metrics only use rows with closing-line data. ROI stays limited until price and stake history line up cleanly across both tracks.

216

Graded Games

30d · qualifying leagues (NCAAB, NHL)

62.8%

Benchmark Win Rate

215 decisions (pushes excluded)

0

Awaiting Grade

resolved team forecasts missing benchmark grade

Not Ready

ROI Status

price and stake history not normalized

Rain Man Prop Intel: 73.9% HR | +0.05 CLV (2707)
Tracking since Feb 2026
MLB tracked since Apr 19, 2026
Serie A tracked since Mar 8, 2026
NBA tracked since Apr 19, 2026
Headline: NCAAB · NHL
Forecasts on record: 1,534
Graded forecasts: 4,142
Benchmark-graded team forecasts

Performance View

Uses benchmark-graded rm_forecast_accuracy_v2 rows with archived forecast snapshots frozen at publish time. Confidence tiers currently cover 97.9% of graded games; 10 graded forecasts remain untiered because the archived public confidence snapshot is missing.

ROI is intentionally hidden until stake sizing and price history are normalized across the public game and prop ledgers.

New team-forecast engine changes only show up here after those forecasts are published, archived, and graded. This page does not rewrite past team history off current cache state.

Performance by Confidence Tier · Team Forecasts

Tier cards currently cover 97.9% of graded games. 10 graded forecasts remain untiered because published winner-confidence data is missing upstream.

⚡⚡⚡⚡A+
Win Rate100%
Record4W - 0L
Sample4 forecasts
Small sample. Treat this tier as directional, not stable.
⚡⚡⚡A
Win Rate100%
Record5W - 0L
Sample5 forecasts
Small sample. Treat this tier as directional, not stable.
⚡⚡B+
Win Rate58.7%
Record166W - 117L - 13P
Sample296 forecasts
B
Win Rate54.9%
Record90W - 74L - 6P
Sample170 forecasts

By League · Team Forecasts

NHL
Graded193
Win Rate62.5%
Untiered6
MLB
Since Apr 19, 2026
Graded59
Win Rate60.3%
Untiered1
La Liga
Graded39
Win Rate61.1%
Untiered1
Serie A
Since Mar 8, 2026
Graded39
Win Rate61.8%
Ligue 1
Graded36
Win Rate43.8%
Untiered1
Bundesliga
Graded35
Win Rate48.4%
EPL
Graded29
Win Rate50%
Untiered1
NCAAB
Graded23
Win Rate65.2%
A+ Rate100%
A+ Sample4
NBA
Since Apr 19, 2026
Graded22
Win Rate40.9%
UCL
Graded6
Win Rate50%
WNBA
Graded4
Win Rate75%

Recently Graded Team Forecasts

DateLeagueMatchupForecastClosing MarketTierResultOutcome
Apr 26MLBATL vs PHIATL -3.5 / ML -205--BATL 6 - PHI 2W
Apr 27Serie ACAG vs ATACAG +0.5 / ML +170CAG -0.5 (-193)BCAG 3 - ATA 2L
Apr 26NHLMTL vs TBTB +1.5 / ML -122TB -1.5 (+120)B+MTL 2 - TB 3W
Apr 26NHLANA vs EDMANA +1.5 / ML +109ANA +1.5 (-142) / ML -110B+ANA 3 - EDM 3W
Apr 26MLBBAL vs BOSBAL -3.5 / ML -155--BBAL 3 - BOS 5L
Apr 26NBAHOU vs LALLAL +22.5 / ML +108LAL +22.5 (-119)BHOU 115 - LAL 96W
Apr 26NBAPHI vs BOSPHI +19.5 / ML +175PHI +19.5 (-119)BPHI 96 - BOS 128L
Apr 26MLBHOU vs NYYNYY -1.5 / ML -125NYY -1.5 (+117) / ML -133BHOU 7 - NYY 4L
Apr 26NBAPOR vs SASSAS -3.5 / ML -185SAS -3.5 (-120) / ML -220BPOR 93 - SAS 114W
Apr 26NHLBOS vs BUFBOS +5.5 / ML -118BOS +5.5 (+212)B+BOS 1 - BUF 6W
Apr 26MLBSTL vs SEASEA -1.5 / ML -128SEA -1.5 (+125) / ML -133BSTL 2 - SEA 3W
Apr 26MLBARI vs SDSD -1.5 / ML -125SD -1.5 (+105) / ML -135BARI 12 - SD 7L
Apr 26MLBLAD vs CHCLAD -1.5 / ML -132LAD -1.5 (+167) / ML -122BLAD 12 - CHC 4W
Apr 26BundesligaBVB vs SCFBVB +1.5 / ML -185BVB -1.5 (-2524)B+BVB 4 - SCF 0L
Apr 26Ligue 1PFC vs LILLIL +1.5 / ML -112LIL -1.5 (+132)B+PFC 0 - LIL 1W
Apr 26Serie AFIO vs SASFIO PK / ML -112FIO PK (-155)B+FIO 0 - SAS 0P
Apr 25NHLPHI vs PITPHI +1.5 / ML -123PHI +1.5 (-188) / ML +221B+PHI 2 - PIT 4L
Apr 26Serie AGEN vs COMGEN +1.5 / ML +285GEN +1.5 (+346)B+GEN 0 - COM 2L
Apr 26MLBSF vs MIASF -1.5 / ML -128SF -1.5 (+170) / ML -125BSF 6 - MIA 3W
Apr 26Ligue 1HAC vs FCMHAC +1 / ML -176HAC -0.5 (-102)B+HAC 4 - FCM 4W
Apr 26NHLLA vs COLLA +1.5 / ML +124LA +1.5 (-107) / ML +375B+LA 1 - COL 5L
Apr 26Ligue 1FCL vs STRSTR +1.5 / ML +205STR +1.5 (-360)BFCL 2 - STR 3W
Apr 26Ligue 1OM vs OGCOGC -1 / ML +395OGC +1.5 (-460)B+OM 1 - OGC 1L
Apr 26Serie AACM vs JUVACM PK / ML -108ACM PK (+110)BACM 0 - JUV 0P
Apr 25WNBAWAS vs MINMIN +13.5 / ML -135MIN -13.5 (-120)B+WAS 66 - MIN 77W
Apr 26La LigaOSA vs SEVOSA -0.5 / ML -112OSA -0.5 (+170)B+OSA 2 - SEV 1W
Apr 26La LigaOVI vs ELCELC +2.5 / ML +118ELC -2.5 (+325)B+OVI 1 - ELC 2W
Apr 26MLBTEX vs OAKOAK -1.5 / ML -115OAK -1.5 (+161) / ML -118BTEX 1 - OAK 2W
Apr 26NBATOR vs CLETOR +2.5 / ML +125TOR -2.5 (-125) / ML -200BTOR 93 - CLE 89L
Apr 26MLBCIN vs DETCIN +1.5 / ML +102CIN +1.5 (-192) / ML -105BCIN 3 - DET 8W
Apr 25MLBCIN vs DETCIN +1.5 / ML +102CIN +1.5 (-170)BCIN 9 - DET 2L
Apr 26Ligue 1SR vs FCNSR -1.25 / ML -210SR -1.5 (+275)B+SR 2 - FCN 1L
Apr 26MLBKC vs LAAKC +1.5 / ML -102KC +1.5 (-147) / ML -104BKC 11 - LAA 9W
Apr 26MLBCWS vs WSHCWS -1.5 / ML -116CWS -1.5 (+172) / ML -120BCWS 1 - WSH 2L
Apr 26BundesligaVFB vs SVWSVW -1 / ML +445SVW +1.5 (-4086)B+VFB 1 - SVW 1L
Apr 25NBAMIN vs DENMIN +7.5 / ML -102MIN -7.5 (-110)BMIN 112 - DEN 96L
Apr 26Serie ATOR vs INTTOR +1.5 / ML +390TOR +1.5 (-5268)B+TOR 2 - INT 2W
Apr 25WNBAGOL vs SEAGOL +5.5 / ML -185GOL -5.5 (-110) / ML -510B+GOL 78 - SEA 76W
Apr 26La LigaRAY vs RSORSO PK / ML -112RSO -0.5 (-703)B+RAY 3 - RSO 3P
Apr 26La LigaVIL vs CELVIL -0.5 / ML -118VIL -2.5 (+240)BVIL 2 - CEL 1W
Apr 25BundesligaM05 vs FCBFCB -0.5 / ML -135FCB -0.5 (-215)B+M05 3 - FCB 4W
Apr 25La LigaALA vs MLLALA +1.5 / ML -106ALA -1.5 (+456)B+ALA 2 - MLL 1W
Apr 25Ligue 1ANG vs PSGPSG +2.5 / ML -280PSG -2.5 (-183)BANG 0 - PSG 3L
Apr 25EPLARS vs NEWNEW +1.5 / ML +475NEW +1.5 (-143)B+ARS 1 - NEW 0W
Apr 25BundesligaFCA vs SGESGE PK / ML +104SGE +1.5 (-1684)B+FCA 1 - SGE 1P
Apr 24NBAPOR vs SASPOR +9.5 / ML -105POR +9.5 (-110)BPOR 108 - SAS 120L
Apr 25Serie ABOL vs ASRBOL +1.5 / ML -108BOL +1.5 (+475)B+BOL 0 - ASR 2L
Apr 24MLBATL vs PHIATL -1.5 / ML -150ATL -1.5 (-480)BATL 5 - PHI 3W
Apr 25MLBATL vs PHIATL -1.5 / ML -137ATL -1.5 (+155) / ML -135BATL 4 - PHI 4P
Apr 24MLBMIL vs PITMIL -0.3 / ML -104--BMIL 0 - PIT 6L
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Rain Man's Methodology

Rain Man's Prop Intel

Rain Man's direction-agnostic prop intelligence — analyzing player performance data, matchup dynamics, and market movement across all major sports.

Rain Man's Composite

Rain Man's multi-signal composite — blending prop intelligence, AI analysis, sharp interest tracking, and closing line value projections into a published winner-confidence score, with market-confidence context shown separately when it exists.

CLV Verification

Every pick is tracked against closing lines to verify genuine edge. Positive CLV means we consistently beat the market — the gold standard of forecasting accuracy.