MODEL PERFORMANCE
Public proof for benchmark-graded team forecasts and closing-line tracked player props.
How to read this: Team forecasts are graded against benchmark numbers. Prop metrics only use rows with closing-line data. ROI stays limited until price and stake history line up cleanly across both tracks.
216
Graded Games
30d · qualifying leagues (NCAAB, NHL)
62.8%
Benchmark Win Rate
215 decisions (pushes excluded)
0
Awaiting Grade
resolved team forecasts missing benchmark grade
Not Ready
ROI Status
price and stake history not normalized
Performance View
Uses benchmark-graded rm_forecast_accuracy_v2 rows with archived forecast snapshots frozen at publish time. Confidence tiers currently cover 97.9% of graded games; 10 graded forecasts remain untiered because the archived public confidence snapshot is missing.
ROI is intentionally hidden until stake sizing and price history are normalized across the public game and prop ledgers.
New team-forecast engine changes only show up here after those forecasts are published, archived, and graded. This page does not rewrite past team history off current cache state.
Performance by Confidence Tier · Team Forecasts
Tier cards currently cover 97.9% of graded games. 10 graded forecasts remain untiered because published winner-confidence data is missing upstream.
By League · Team Forecasts
Recently Graded Team Forecasts
| Date | League | Matchup | Forecast | Closing Market | Tier | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | MLB | ATL vs PHI | ATL -3.5 / ML -205 | -- | B | ATL 6 - PHI 2 | W |
| Apr 27 | Serie A | CAG vs ATA | CAG +0.5 / ML +170 | CAG -0.5 (-193) | B | CAG 3 - ATA 2 | L |
| Apr 26 | NHL | MTL vs TB | TB +1.5 / ML -122 | TB -1.5 (+120) | B+ | MTL 2 - TB 3 | W |
| Apr 26 | NHL | ANA vs EDM | ANA +1.5 / ML +109 | ANA +1.5 (-142) / ML -110 | B+ | ANA 3 - EDM 3 | W |
| Apr 26 | MLB | BAL vs BOS | BAL -3.5 / ML -155 | -- | B | BAL 3 - BOS 5 | L |
| Apr 26 | NBA | HOU vs LAL | LAL +22.5 / ML +108 | LAL +22.5 (-119) | B | HOU 115 - LAL 96 | W |
| Apr 26 | NBA | PHI vs BOS | PHI +19.5 / ML +175 | PHI +19.5 (-119) | B | PHI 96 - BOS 128 | L |
| Apr 26 | MLB | HOU vs NYY | NYY -1.5 / ML -125 | NYY -1.5 (+117) / ML -133 | B | HOU 7 - NYY 4 | L |
| Apr 26 | NBA | POR vs SAS | SAS -3.5 / ML -185 | SAS -3.5 (-120) / ML -220 | B | POR 93 - SAS 114 | W |
| Apr 26 | NHL | BOS vs BUF | BOS +5.5 / ML -118 | BOS +5.5 (+212) | B+ | BOS 1 - BUF 6 | W |
| Apr 26 | MLB | STL vs SEA | SEA -1.5 / ML -128 | SEA -1.5 (+125) / ML -133 | B | STL 2 - SEA 3 | W |
| Apr 26 | MLB | ARI vs SD | SD -1.5 / ML -125 | SD -1.5 (+105) / ML -135 | B | ARI 12 - SD 7 | L |
| Apr 26 | MLB | LAD vs CHC | LAD -1.5 / ML -132 | LAD -1.5 (+167) / ML -122 | B | LAD 12 - CHC 4 | W |
| Apr 26 | Bundesliga | BVB vs SCF | BVB +1.5 / ML -185 | BVB -1.5 (-2524) | B+ | BVB 4 - SCF 0 | L |
| Apr 26 | Ligue 1 | PFC vs LIL | LIL +1.5 / ML -112 | LIL -1.5 (+132) | B+ | PFC 0 - LIL 1 | W |
| Apr 26 | Serie A | FIO vs SAS | FIO PK / ML -112 | FIO PK (-155) | B+ | FIO 0 - SAS 0 | P |
| Apr 25 | NHL | PHI vs PIT | PHI +1.5 / ML -123 | PHI +1.5 (-188) / ML +221 | B+ | PHI 2 - PIT 4 | L |
| Apr 26 | Serie A | GEN vs COM | GEN +1.5 / ML +285 | GEN +1.5 (+346) | B+ | GEN 0 - COM 2 | L |
| Apr 26 | MLB | SF vs MIA | SF -1.5 / ML -128 | SF -1.5 (+170) / ML -125 | B | SF 6 - MIA 3 | W |
| Apr 26 | Ligue 1 | HAC vs FCM | HAC +1 / ML -176 | HAC -0.5 (-102) | B+ | HAC 4 - FCM 4 | W |
| Apr 26 | NHL | LA vs COL | LA +1.5 / ML +124 | LA +1.5 (-107) / ML +375 | B+ | LA 1 - COL 5 | L |
| Apr 26 | Ligue 1 | FCL vs STR | STR +1.5 / ML +205 | STR +1.5 (-360) | B | FCL 2 - STR 3 | W |
| Apr 26 | Ligue 1 | OM vs OGC | OGC -1 / ML +395 | OGC +1.5 (-460) | B+ | OM 1 - OGC 1 | L |
| Apr 26 | Serie A | ACM vs JUV | ACM PK / ML -108 | ACM PK (+110) | B | ACM 0 - JUV 0 | P |
| Apr 25 | WNBA | WAS vs MIN | MIN +13.5 / ML -135 | MIN -13.5 (-120) | B+ | WAS 66 - MIN 77 | W |
| Apr 26 | La Liga | OSA vs SEV | OSA -0.5 / ML -112 | OSA -0.5 (+170) | B+ | OSA 2 - SEV 1 | W |
| Apr 26 | La Liga | OVI vs ELC | ELC +2.5 / ML +118 | ELC -2.5 (+325) | B+ | OVI 1 - ELC 2 | W |
| Apr 26 | MLB | TEX vs OAK | OAK -1.5 / ML -115 | OAK -1.5 (+161) / ML -118 | B | TEX 1 - OAK 2 | W |
| Apr 26 | NBA | TOR vs CLE | TOR +2.5 / ML +125 | TOR -2.5 (-125) / ML -200 | B | TOR 93 - CLE 89 | L |
| Apr 26 | MLB | CIN vs DET | CIN +1.5 / ML +102 | CIN +1.5 (-192) / ML -105 | B | CIN 3 - DET 8 | W |
| Apr 25 | MLB | CIN vs DET | CIN +1.5 / ML +102 | CIN +1.5 (-170) | B | CIN 9 - DET 2 | L |
| Apr 26 | Ligue 1 | SR vs FCN | SR -1.25 / ML -210 | SR -1.5 (+275) | B+ | SR 2 - FCN 1 | L |
| Apr 26 | MLB | KC vs LAA | KC +1.5 / ML -102 | KC +1.5 (-147) / ML -104 | B | KC 11 - LAA 9 | W |
| Apr 26 | MLB | CWS vs WSH | CWS -1.5 / ML -116 | CWS -1.5 (+172) / ML -120 | B | CWS 1 - WSH 2 | L |
| Apr 26 | Bundesliga | VFB vs SVW | SVW -1 / ML +445 | SVW +1.5 (-4086) | B+ | VFB 1 - SVW 1 | L |
| Apr 25 | NBA | MIN vs DEN | MIN +7.5 / ML -102 | MIN -7.5 (-110) | B | MIN 112 - DEN 96 | L |
| Apr 26 | Serie A | TOR vs INT | TOR +1.5 / ML +390 | TOR +1.5 (-5268) | B+ | TOR 2 - INT 2 | W |
| Apr 25 | WNBA | GOL vs SEA | GOL +5.5 / ML -185 | GOL -5.5 (-110) / ML -510 | B+ | GOL 78 - SEA 76 | W |
| Apr 26 | La Liga | RAY vs RSO | RSO PK / ML -112 | RSO -0.5 (-703) | B+ | RAY 3 - RSO 3 | P |
| Apr 26 | La Liga | VIL vs CEL | VIL -0.5 / ML -118 | VIL -2.5 (+240) | B | VIL 2 - CEL 1 | W |
| Apr 25 | Bundesliga | M05 vs FCB | FCB -0.5 / ML -135 | FCB -0.5 (-215) | B+ | M05 3 - FCB 4 | W |
| Apr 25 | La Liga | ALA vs MLL | ALA +1.5 / ML -106 | ALA -1.5 (+456) | B+ | ALA 2 - MLL 1 | W |
| Apr 25 | Ligue 1 | ANG vs PSG | PSG +2.5 / ML -280 | PSG -2.5 (-183) | B | ANG 0 - PSG 3 | L |
| Apr 25 | EPL | ARS vs NEW | NEW +1.5 / ML +475 | NEW +1.5 (-143) | B+ | ARS 1 - NEW 0 | W |
| Apr 25 | Bundesliga | FCA vs SGE | SGE PK / ML +104 | SGE +1.5 (-1684) | B+ | FCA 1 - SGE 1 | P |
| Apr 24 | NBA | POR vs SAS | POR +9.5 / ML -105 | POR +9.5 (-110) | B | POR 108 - SAS 120 | L |
| Apr 25 | Serie A | BOL vs ASR | BOL +1.5 / ML -108 | BOL +1.5 (+475) | B+ | BOL 0 - ASR 2 | L |
| Apr 24 | MLB | ATL vs PHI | ATL -1.5 / ML -150 | ATL -1.5 (-480) | B | ATL 5 - PHI 3 | W |
| Apr 25 | MLB | ATL vs PHI | ATL -1.5 / ML -137 | ATL -1.5 (+155) / ML -135 | B | ATL 4 - PHI 4 | P |
| Apr 24 | MLB | MIL vs PIT | MIL -0.3 / ML -104 | -- | B | MIL 0 - PIT 6 | L |
Rain Man's Methodology
Rain Man's Prop Intel
Rain Man's direction-agnostic prop intelligence — analyzing player performance data, matchup dynamics, and market movement across all major sports.
Rain Man's Composite
Rain Man's multi-signal composite — blending prop intelligence, AI analysis, sharp interest tracking, and closing line value projections into a published winner-confidence score, with market-confidence context shown separately when it exists.
CLV Verification
Every pick is tracked against closing lines to verify genuine edge. Positive CLV means we consistently beat the market — the gold standard of forecasting accuracy.